By Kenyon B. De Greene (auth.), Kenyon B. De Greene (eds.)
This publication relies on a couple of structures thoughts, of which the next are emphasised the following: oThe interacting structures of society and the surroundings are dynamic and evolution ary oEvolution of those platforms includes them via phases of differential balance and instability, continuity and discontinuity oAssociated with evolution and instability is structural switch that's primarily irre versible oThe current is a degree of worldwide transformation that won't were equaled for many years or perhaps centuries oPolicies and judgements needs to fit the days, within the current case the level of global transformation The time 11:59:59 PM, nearly, on December 31, 2000 has an impor tant symbolic which means. It marks the tip of a minute, the tip of an hour, the top of an afternoon, the tip of a yr, the tip of a decade, the top of a century, and the top of a millennium. The time and date supply a handy yardstick opposed to which we will review the evolution of our considering and the adequacy of our assumptions, psychological versions, paradigms, and guidelines. Will the start tum out to be competently dif ferent from the top? we are hoping that this e-book is beneficial in such overview. this can be a new-paradigm publication, which either offers and advances the hot mind set concerning the platforms of technology, know-how, society, economics, politics, and the surroundings, and actively demands the substitute of the worn out cognitive/sociotechnical paradigm.
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Extra info for A Systems-Based Approach to Policymaking
It can be interpreted as reflecting fluctuations in employment and commodity inventories. Many observers recognize the J uglar cycle of 8-10 years, interpreted as representing fixed capital in the durable equipment of production; and Kuznets cycle of 15-25 years' duration, reflecting fixed capital in real estate and structures and the mix of capital and labor. Next comes the Kondratiev (formerly usually Kondratieff) cycle or economic long wave of about 45-60 years. The hegemonic or super-long wave lasts 150 years or more.
A SIMPLE MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF NONLINEARITY The logistic function is one of the "workhorses" of systems science and of technological forecasting. , Marchetti, 1991, p. 414) is: dN/dt = aoNo(K-N), where N represents the number of individuals or items or a population; t represents time; a is a constant of proportionality; and K is a limit, a carrying capacity, or a saturation level. 2 shows the simple logistic function. We shall return to other versions later. 2 provides a great deal of information.
Unfortunately, energy policy indicates that humanity after all may not always be a learning system! In the case summarized here, the very approach to policymaking constrained the collective thought patterns and imaginations. Policymakers and decisionmakers reacted to each discontinuity as if it were the onset of a simple new trend. Lee, Ball, and Tabors (1990) identify four major reasons why large analytic models have been less than useful in solving the world's energy problems: (1) overemphasis on optimization techniques in spite of the necessary reliance on many qualitative factors and on defective information; (2) limitations associated with an unquestioning faith in the meaningfulness of the underlying assumptions; (3) inadequate attention to the man-model interface, especially with regard to the lack of comprehension by policymakers and decision makers of the inner workings of the model; and (4) overreliance on forecasts.