By E. Lundsgaarde
Combining reviews of demography, weather switch, know-how and innovation, political improvement, new actors in foreign improvement, and worldwide governance frameworks, this publication highlights the main underlying determinants of swap within the African context and key uncertainties concerning the continent's destiny improvement clients.
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Extra resources for Africa Toward 2030: Challenges for Development Policy
For a second group, climate change, land use, new actors in international development, population growth, and the role of the African diaspora were placed in the spotlight. A third group further underscored the importance of demographic change, while also emphasising that global economic forces and political developments in Africa would be determining forces. These group discussions provided the basis for a consolidated list of drivers of change, and workshop participants were asked to vote for the most important drivers on the list in order to furnish the overall group assessment.
Assessments of the utility of scenario analysis methods have suggested that there is limited evidence of their actual effectiveness. In addition to the literature referenced above, which outlines justifications for using the method, there have been some studies of specific applications that have been deemed successful, however research on the impact of scenarios in contributing to improvements in organisational performance has in general been restricted in scope (European Environmental Agency 2009).
This chapter also provides an overview of how elements of the scenario tradition have informed the goals of this exercise and structured the research process. An important prerequisite for the discussion of possible futures is to provide an account of the common starting point for alternative development trajectories. Chapter 3 sets the stage for the exploration of Africa’s future by offering a descriptive overview of contemporary development trends in Africa. The chapter highlights many different elements of the development landscape including key features of the economic, political and environmental contexts.